What’s new has often been lived before, but sometimes it’s not pretty. Presumably that’s what Clarence Darrow meant when he said, “History repeats itself, and that’s one of the things that’s wrong with history.” It is becoming increasingly clear that … Continue reading
In December, when my 2012 view became positive, I questioned whether I was misinterpreting the value of the LTRO and the Chinese reduction in their Bank Reserve Requirements, as I appeared to be alone in my assessment. Jim Cramer screamed … Continue reading
The ECB lending program to banks is off and running. On the first day offered, low interest rates loans were subscribed by banks in the amount of $635 Billion, an amount greater than the Fed’s QE2 which took nine months to complete. This is a battle of whether liquidity will trump insolvency and stabilize government debt prices. If it does, it will set off an asset bubble in assets that thrive in low and stable interest rate environments. Continue reading
The consequences of excess debt are now facing the leaders of Europe head on, and a monumental decision must be made whether explicitly or implicitly. Excess debt leads to a long chain of D words: Deleveraging in an attempt to … Continue reading
Some might be wondering why the euro zone rescue focus turned to saving banks as opposed to saving governments. The reasons are illuminating. Consider the following: When a government has a debt bulge, the debt must be held as someone … Continue reading
The dominos are falling. It’s the modern version of a 1930’s bank run. Since everything is bigger (the leverage) and faster (the computers) these days, so is the downfall in financial prices and institutions. The lead domino is an asset … Continue reading
Invitation: Unchartered Waters Ahead: I will be giving a McCombs Alumni Lecture/Discussion (open to the public) Wednesday, Sept. 14, starting at 7:30 p.m. at the AT&T Conference Center just off campus. The content will be the likelihood and effects of … Continue reading
Last month, I made a personal odyssey to the Grand Tetons Mountains and Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It’s the place where I discovered the American West while in college. It is a mountain rising abruptly from its flat surroundings (the Hole) … Continue reading
Interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt on the pervasive effects of accumulated debt on the economy and financial market pricing.
