Author Archives: Lew Spellman

Bill Gross and the Rise and Fall of Bond Market Nirvana

Bonds are fun to own when interest rates are very high and then bond prices start to rise. That makes for favorable income and capital gains simultaneously. Such was the opportunity bond investors in U.S. markets enjoyed commencing in 1981 …and then for three following decades. It was bond market Nirvana, which unfortunately for bond investors is fading into the rear view mirror. Continue reading

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Economic Direction as Seen Below the Radar

The economy has been in a growth rut for six years with one large shock after another. But there is also a cyclical component to GDP growth that lives a life of its own and can drive an economy. The very low levels of plant and equipment spending since the tech boom of the 1990s leaves the US with aging physical plant and rising labor costs. This should stimulate business capital investment and keep the cyclical ball rolling but at reduced profit margins and a tinge of inflationary pressure. Continue reading

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An Ode to George Bailey, Credit in a Banking-less World and How Much QE Is Enough

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Though financial regulation has taken the friendly local loan officer (George Bailey) out of the credit equation, the Fed’s Quantitative Ease is creating credit at close to record rates of growth. The credit generation is not in the usual ways, but in amounts sufficient to generate an economic expansion. Read about the creative market response to increases in the monetary base when banks are handcuffed to Dodd-Frank. Continue reading

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The Writing Is on the Wall: There Will Be Wealth Taxes

What is a government to do, when a slowdown in population growth occurs after it has committed itself to age related entitlements? In this case, inter-generational income redistribution from the young to the elderly will not be sufficient to cover the costs. The answer is to find another tax base, which this time looks to be a wealth tax. Indeed, it has already arrived. Learn more about financial diversification consistent with this reality. Continue reading

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The Writing Is On the Wall: Wealth Protection in Today’s Environment

attheader 300x91 The Writing Is On the Wall: Wealth Protection in Todays EnvironmentMany Americans have a sense that the financial distress of the US government is no longer an issue to be thought about later. We have brought together for one evening experts from law, global investment and financial planning who can provide you with important background to implement your own wealth preservation plan. To learn more and reserve your seat now for this important event, click here.

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The No Mo or Mighty Mo Forecast and Harry Truman’s Quest for a One-Armed Economist

At the end of World War II, lore has it that Harry Truman’s economists facing a wide range of possible economic outcomes advised him that “on one hand this, and on the other hand that”. Truman eventually had enough of the uncertainty and asked for a “one-armed economist”. Much is the same today with mega forces pushing and pulling the economy. The net balance will determine whether it is to be a No Mo or Might Mo economy. Continue reading

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Regulation, Gravity and The “Isms”: The Education of a President

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This week, President Obama unveiled his proposals to enhance economic growth, create quality jobs, and create fairness in income distribution an approach he calls growing from the “middle out.” His plans call for income redistribution under the guise of income “fairness” that might reduce differences in income but at a cost of lower income for all. These lessons of the “isms” were learned centuries ago and relearned after the Great Depression but seemly must be relearned again. This will be an expensive education of a President. Continue reading

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A Tiger by the Tail: The Fed and QE3

Federal Reserve metaphors of tapering, exit and de-acceleration are but face saving diversions in the dialogue from the hard fact that this is a requiem not just for QE3 but also a requiem for the idea that the Fed is able to generate further lending and spending. In this new global financing world, stimulus from money had moved to the Shadow Banking System which has reached its upper limit not despite QE3 but because of it. Continue reading

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The Vulnerability of Private Wealth to Government Financial Stress

“The Vulnerability of Private Wealth to Government Financial Stress”
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The Slow-Moving Train Wreck Has Picked up Speed: Foreign Depositors in European Banks Will Be Outed

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Economies have natural self-correction mechanisms to keep the economic train on the tracks and moving at accustomed speed unless undercut by governments. In their desperation for tax revenues, Euro zone governments have “outed” their foreign depositors to the foreigners’ home taxing authority. Thus, the slow moving train wreck has just picked up speed. Continue reading

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