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- The Vulnerability of Private Wealth to Government Financial Stress
QEs, Currency Wars, the Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin and the Route to “Modern” Inflation
A government faced with financing its deficits in quantities some multiple of private saving must resort to monetary schemes in order to keep its promises to spend. Monetary schemes are essentially costless ways to pay the government’s bills today while … Continue reading →
About the Spellman ReportLew Spellman is a Professor of Finance at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business. The Spellman Report seeks to interpret current and future trends in the economy and financial markets from the perspective of history, theory, policy and market expectations.
Tag Archives: inflation
The antidote to a troubled macro environment since Keynes wrote the book in the 1930s Depression has been the dual demand-side sledgehammers of government deficit spending and monetary expansion. This has been Plan A to address a beleaguered economy and other things needing fixes. Having not worked miracles, governments at all levels across the globe are on to Plan B. Continue reading
The economy has been in a growth rut for six years with one large shock after another. But there is also a cyclical component to GDP growth that lives a life of its own and can drive an economy. The very low levels of plant and equipment spending since the tech boom of the 1990s leaves the US with aging physical plant and rising labor costs. This should stimulate business capital investment and keep the cyclical ball rolling but at reduced profit margins and a tinge of inflationary pressure. Continue reading
In these times of economic upheaval, divergent opinions regarding future inflation exist side by side: Either Grand-scale inflation or deflation, take your pick. The differences are actually not side by side but at either tail of a subjective probably distribution … Continue reading
These are epic times in the developed world’s attempt to deal with the implications of government and consumer over-indebtedness. A general unshakable malaise has set in due to sluggish spending and a deleveraging banking sector, and as a result, employment … Continue reading
These are complicated times, especially when it comes to inflation. An excess of debt, both private and public, has retarded the spending stream, resulting in sluggish economic growth. Given the Fed’s legislated commitment to prevent financial implosion and unemployment, rounds … Continue reading
Recently, the bond market has been in rocket mode. It has achieved liftoff and slipped the surly bonds of earth. And some believe it will keep going. The price of the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond recently reached an all-time high, … Continue reading
Spain’s financial vulnerability has been in the spotlight recently. The trickle-down from a single bank’s insolvency gives us a glimpse of how country funding shortfalls are likely to be handled in the coming decades. The Spanish bank in question, Bankia, … Continue reading
What’s new has often been lived before, but sometimes it’s not pretty. Presumably that’s what Clarence Darrow meant when he said, “History repeats itself, and that’s one of the things that’s wrong with history.” It is becoming increasingly clear that … Continue reading