The Financial and Economic Morass - What is Needed for a Recovery and How Long Will it Take?

Posted on August 1, 2010 by
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The Cost Of Government Action In The Economic Meltdown Capital Regulation Negative Growth and Deflation Gifts From Abroad Or The Federal Reserve The Market Reigns In Governments The Expensive Way to Bail Out Conclusion - Who Pays the Bill

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The Collapse of the Carry Trade

Posted on July 16, 2010 by
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Interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt

Posted on July 15, 2010 by
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Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management articulates his view of why deflationary forces are so strong in the economy despite the doubling of the monetary base and will lead to further decline in long term interest rates. Continue reading →

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The Debt Satiation Economy - Part 1

Posted on July 15, 2010 by

The current recession is not the prototype garden variety post-WW II US cyclical experience. Rather the economic/financial malaise is driven by the accumulation of consumer debt and now government debt relative to the income sources to sustain it and economic policy serves to increase debt satiation without curing the recession. Continue reading →

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A Cyclical or a Secular Event?

Posted on July 15, 2010 by
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The current economic malaise has been largely interpreted as an extreme case of a typical post-war cyclical experience that the typical government policy can eradicate. However, the lingering nature of the recession with the fear of the double dip raises the question of whether this is a longer term secular experience that behaves differently than the garden type cyclical experience. Continue reading →

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The Smoke and Mirrors of The Greek Bailout Package

Posted on May 19, 2010 by

The presumption that a developed world country could always finance its deficit hit the wall last week in an event that will henceforth be simply known to economic and market historians as “Greece.” The Greece bailout or more generally, the … Continue reading →

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US Sovereign Risk: Capital Safe Havens

Posted on April 25, 2010 by
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Since it is highly unlikely that the US government will address the fiscal imbalance by reigning in entitlements, the pressure then builds for the financial market to rein in the government’s expansion of continuously growing deficits. Because of the built-in … Continue reading →

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US Sovereign Risk: How the Market Reins in an Out of Control Sovereign

Posted on April 24, 2010 by

While it is relatively easy to legislate entitlements, paying for them is the more difficult part and obviously little thought was given to the latter at the time the entitlements were passed into law. Moreover, little thought was given to … Continue reading →

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US Sovereign Risk: Why the Financial Market Supports Treasuries Despite the Risk

Posted on April 23, 2010 by

Given the debt accumulations projections from Sovereign Risk Part 2 it raises the question of why is it possible that the market is willing to accumulating Treasuries on such favorable terms. As a value proposition Treasuries and the US dollar … Continue reading →

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US Sovereign Risk: The Political Economy of the Growth of Government Debt

Posted on April 22, 2010 by
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Until post- WW II government debt in America was largely the legacy of previous wars and typically following each war there was an active effort to raise taxes and retire debt which amounts to a fiscal surplus. Since a fiscal … Continue reading →

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