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European Sovereign Debt in Distress






Following the 2007 sub-prime mortgage meltdown and the subsequent contagion that took down virtually every asset class and in turn the institutions that held those assets, the government of many countries were called upon to stabilize financial asset prices, the … Continue reading

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Will 2009 Financial Market Trends Hold Up in 2010?






2009 Financial Market Trends In the last month of 2009 some of the financial trends of the year seemed to veer off course. While trend reversal in December is not unexpected as money managers seek to realize and book audacious … Continue reading

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Update: Economic Policy Has Reached A Dead End And The Recession Continues






Unemployment narrowly defined is at near 10% or broadly defined is near 17% if it includes those who have quit looking (job search is expensive) and those who are working less than their preferred full time. Also, the length of the economic … Continue reading

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Inflation vs. Deflation Part I: A Depressed Economy Vs. Excess Money






Expectations of inflation which affect the pricing of all asset classes is now far ranging, leaving investors in a state of dissonance. There is a core group who expect inflation - possibly very high inflation - in the future, while … Continue reading

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DeJa Vu All Over Again: The Return of the Carry Trade and Implications






This summer the debt and equity rally continued with new strength. Evidence is new buying power is entering the market from leveraged lending similarly to the 2005-2007 asset rallies. In this case the likely lenders are US rather than Japanese … Continue reading

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Government Deficits and Government Debt: The 800 Pound Gorilla

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800_lb_Gorilla_MPEG-4 I would like to speak today about government deficits and the need to finance those government deficits with the sale of Treasuries. The size of the U.S. Treasury deficit has become the 800 Pound Gorilla that has entered the … Continue reading

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Second Anniversary of Credit Meltdown: A Faith Based Rally






Today is August 3, 2009. It is the second anniversary of the modern day version of Black Monday. Two years ago today, financial markets started a meltdown. That, in turn, brought down the financial institutions that held the assets that … Continue reading

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International Monetary Fund: The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet: What Happened and Why it Matters






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International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook






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Bernanke’s Speech on the Great Moderation






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