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Category Archives: The Spellman Report
US Sovereign Risk: Capital Safe Havens
Since it is highly unlikely that the US government will address the fiscal imbalance by reigning in entitlements, the pressure then builds for the financial market to rein in the government’s expansion of continuously growing deficits. Because of the built-in … Continue reading
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US Sovereign Risk: How the Market Reins in an Out of Control Sovereign
While it is relatively easy to legislate entitlements, paying for them is the more difficult part and obviously little thought was given to the latter at the time the entitlements were passed into law. Moreover, little thought was given to … Continue reading
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US Sovereign Risk: Why the Financial Market Supports Treasuries Despite the Risk
Given the debt accumulations projections from Sovereign Risk Part 2 it raises the question of why is it possible that the market is willing to accumulating Treasuries on such favorable terms. As a value proposition Treasuries and the US dollar … Continue reading
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US Sovereign Risk: The Political Economy of the Growth of Government Debt
Until post- WW II government debt in America was largely the legacy of previous wars and typically following each war there was an active effort to raise taxes and retire debt which amounts to a fiscal surplus. Since a fiscal … Continue reading
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US Sovereign Risk: Growth of Debt in the US
Much of the economic-financial and policy dilemma surrounding the Great Recession has to do with the growth of debt in the US as shown below. The very high debt levels relative to income are a new problem that constrains an … Continue reading
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Financial Market Update: Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations or is it Sovereign Risk as Well?
Financial markets and the Fed recently have been focused on prospective inflation. The issue at the Fed stems from the approaching April Open Market Committee meeting and a determination as to whether or not its low interest rate policy is … Continue reading
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The Great Recession: The Threat to the Carry Trade
The access to capital through the Repo market has been a driving force in the financial market come-back in 2009. Some of the proceeds are also used to acquire financial product in the Emerging Nations and as a result also … Continue reading
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The Great Recession: The Carry Trade and Asset Bubbles
The classic method of the Fed using monetary policy to stimulate the economy via bank loans that in turn fund spending by consumers and businesses is clearly not working at all. However, there are new channels of monetary policy that … Continue reading
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The Great Recession: Ineffective Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Fed Exit
Given the duel problem of correcting an income and asset recession the government needs to support both. The income support comes from spending, most of which is automatic such as unemployment insurance and some of which is discretionary stimulus and … Continue reading
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The Great Recession: Why the Great Recession is Different
“This Time Is Different” a recent book by Reinhart and Rogoff addresses eight centuries of sovereign meltdown that we will get to in The Great Recession Part 2 but the title is also appropriate to the notion that the Great … Continue reading
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