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Category Archives: The Spellman Report
The Dumpster for Toxic Euro Sovereign Debt
Some might be wondering why the euro zone rescue focus turned to saving banks as opposed to saving governments. The reasons are illuminating. Consider the following: When a government has a debt bulge, the debt must be held as someone … Continue reading
Dominos: From Financial Crisis to Economic Crisis to Government Crisis
The dominos are falling. It’s the modern version of a 1930’s bank run. Since everything is bigger (the leverage) and faster (the computers) these days, so is the downfall in financial prices and institutions. The lead domino is an asset … Continue reading
Turn Out the Lights, the Party’s Over
Invitation: Unchartered Waters Ahead: I will be giving a McCombs Alumni Lecture/Discussion (open to the public) Wednesday, Sept. 14, starting at 7:30 p.m. at the AT&T Conference Center just off campus. The content will be the likelihood and effects of … Continue reading
A Return to the Grand Tetons: Perspective on the Economic Obstacles Ahead
Last month, I made a personal odyssey to the Grand Tetons Mountains and Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It’s the place where I discovered the American West while in college. It is a mountain rising abruptly from its flat surroundings (the Hole) … Continue reading
Reserve Currency Sovereign Defaults and the Flight to Quality Asset
A member of the Euro zone has defaulted while pressure is building on others and a U.S. government default is in suspended animation. Since a U.S. default would be a willful strategic act it can be avoided, but even if … Continue reading
The Anatomy of a Financial Meltdown
The Euro debt situation continues to deteriorate and the U.S. is not far behind. All the distress that is now focused on government debt comes from excessive private indebtedness as developed world countries seek to support the private sector. This … Continue reading
Why These People Are Smiling: Is There No Atlantic Wall of Financial Protection for the U.S.?
We had some more fancy footwork and relieved smiles from Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy this past week. The reason for the smiles is not that the Euro debt crisis has been resolved, but they believe they have found a … Continue reading
As Greece Goes, So Goes Europe: How the Unthinkable Happens
The Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which created the Eurozone and the European Central Bank (ECB), requires fiscal responsibility of its members. Annual fiscal deficits relative to GDP were not to exceed 3 percent, and cumulative debt was supposed to be … Continue reading
From the White Horse to the Black Robe: The Fed as the Fifth Estate of Government
At the Fed’s humble beginning almost a century ago, its designated role was to dispatch a cash-bearing armored car to a member commercial bank whose depositors had lost confidence and were in line at the door to exchange their deposits … Continue reading
Posted in The Spellman Report
Tagged economy, federal reserver
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How the Inflation Genie Sprang Out of the Bottle
A mere six months ago, the Fed was fretting about the danger of slipping into deflation. A funny thing happened on the way to the Fed’s feared deflation. The Inflation Genie Leaped out of the bottle. This is occurring despite falling US wages and still soft U.S. markets. It adds up to Stagflation lead by commodity prices and import inflation and is resulting in declining real wages. Continue reading
Posted in The Spellman Report
Tagged carry trade, commodity prices, Inflation and Investing, repo market, Stagflation, The Inflation Genie
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