Search Results for: financial analysis

The Anatomy of a Financial Meltdown

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The Euro debt situation continues to deteriorate and the U.S. is not far behind. All the distress that is now focused on government debt comes from excessive private indebtedness as developed world countries seek to support the private sector. This … Continue reading

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Budget Spin Control Undressed: Mike Granoff on the Government Financial Report

The White House makes projections of government deficits and debt accumulation such as contained in the Budget and the Economic Report of the President. Politicians being politicians thrive on good news and find ways to suppress the less flattering, better … Continue reading

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Financial Market Update: Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations or is it Sovereign Risk as Well?

Output gap (deviation of real GDP from real potential GDP)

Financial markets and the Fed recently have been focused on prospective inflation. The issue at the Fed stems from the approaching April Open Market Committee meeting and a determination as to whether or not its low interest rate policy is … Continue reading

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Tell Spellman It’s an Art, Not a Science

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At the moment, the question of whether or not the Fed should be raising interest rates has become a much ballyhooed event for which every investor, financial writer, and taxi cab driver has an opinion. It’s supposedly based on the best estimates of what money variables need to be in order to align aggregate spending with the upper supply side level that won’t trip off too much inflation. While the Fed would like to be scientific about it, the dramatic effects of globalism places the decision more in the realm of art than science and the Fed is not comfortable with art. Continue reading

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Warren Buffet and the New Calculus of Gold

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There has long been a disconnect between gold and institutional investors. The instincts of these managers of large sums are typically tied to the generation of cash flows to feed the monster — that is, the institution’s cash flow needs. … Continue reading

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In today’s unique macro financial environment, The Spellman Report analyzes the intersection of where the economy, economic policy and financial markets meet. The state of the economy, the policies pursued and their effects on financial market pricing no longer conforms … Continue reading

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Update: Economic Policy Has Reached A Dead End And The Recession Continues

Unemployment narrowly defined is at near 10% or broadly defined is near 17% if it includes those who have quit looking (job search is expensive) and those who are working less than their preferred full time. Also, the length of the economic … Continue reading

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Inflation vs. Deflation Part I: A Depressed Economy Vs. Excess Money

Expectations of inflation which affect the pricing of all asset classes is now far ranging, leaving investors in a state of dissonance. There is a core group who expect inflation - possibly very high inflation - in the future, while … Continue reading

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