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The Vulnerability of Private Wealth to Government Financial Stress
Tag Archives: inflation
The Deflationary Trap and the Central Bank Game of Chess
Few who lived through the “runaway” inflation of the 1970s would have dreamed that someday inflation would be a desirable public policy? We have come to find out that it surely beats deflation. But how to achieve inflation has proven to be elusive. Continue reading
On Saving the Economy: Plan B
The antidote to a troubled macro environment since Keynes wrote the book in the 1930s Depression has been the dual demand-side sledgehammers of government deficit spending and monetary expansion. This has been Plan A to address a beleaguered economy and other things needing fixes. Having not worked miracles, governments at all levels across the globe are on to Plan B. Continue reading
Economic Direction as Seen Below the Radar
The economy has been in a growth rut for six years with one large shock after another. But there is also a cyclical component to GDP growth that lives a life of its own and can drive an economy. The very low levels of plant and equipment spending since the tech boom of the 1990s leaves the US with aging physical plant and rising labor costs. This should stimulate business capital investment and keep the cyclical ball rolling but at reduced profit margins and a tinge of inflationary pressure. Continue reading
The Now Generation Government Has Failed the Marshmallow Test: Making Sense of the Fiscal Cliff Outcome
Over the past five years, the government has applied the usual demand-side remedies in the epic battle against The Great Recession. The graph shows the time profile of past recessions and recoveries as compared to the Great one that we … Continue reading
What does Thomas Edison have to do with bonds and gold?
In these times of economic upheaval, divergent opinions regarding future inflation exist side by side: Either Grand-scale inflation or deflation, take your pick. The differences are actually not side by side but at either tail of a subjective probably distribution … Continue reading
Ben Bernanke and the Implications of The Great Monetary Hail Mary
These are epic times in the developed world’s attempt to deal with the implications of government and consumer over-indebtedness. A general unshakable malaise has set in due to sluggish spending and a deleveraging banking sector, and as a result, employment … Continue reading
Posted in The Spellman Report
Tagged Ben Bernanke, Competitive devaluations, David Rosenberg, employment, GLD, Gold, inflation, Keynesianism, M2, Milton Friedman, Monetary base, monetary hail mary, QE, QE3
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Milton Friedman and the Monetarist Reflex: Can the Fed create inflation?
These are complicated times, especially when it comes to inflation. An excess of debt, both private and public, has retarded the spending stream, resulting in sluggish economic growth. Given the Fed’s legislated commitment to prevent financial implosion and unemployment, rounds … Continue reading
The Bond Market Rocket and Fiscal Unsustainability Are On a Collision Path
Recently, the bond market has been in rocket mode. It has achieved liftoff and slipped the surly bonds of earth. And some believe it will keep going. The price of the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond recently reached an all-time high, … Continue reading
Posted in The Spellman Report
Tagged AGG, BLV, Bond Market, Bond market valuation, Central banks and inflation, CLY, David Rosenberg, debt deflation, Fiscal and monetary policy, Fiscal sustainability, Fixed income investments, GLD, Gold, Government bond default, Helicopter money, Historic low interest rates, inflation, Inflation targeting, Milton Friedman, Monetarism, Monetary responses to fiscal policy, QE, Real return assets, TBF, The Fed, UBD, Unanticipated inflation, Velocity of money
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Denial, Default or Treasury Currency: the Hobson’s Choice
Spain’s financial vulnerability has been in the spotlight recently. The trickle-down from a single bank’s insolvency gives us a glimpse of how country funding shortfalls are likely to be handled in the coming decades. The Spanish bank in question, Bankia, … Continue reading
Financial Repression: The Unintended Consequences of Saving the Sovereign
What’s new has often been lived before, but sometimes it’s not pretty. Presumably that’s what Clarence Darrow meant when he said, “History repeats itself, and that’s one of the things that’s wrong with history.” It is becoming increasingly clear that … Continue reading